EU SAF supply hit 1.1 million tonnes in 2025, clearing the first ReFuelEU Aviation mandatory threshold — but the real long-term cost story may be written underground, not in electrolysis halls.
The Netherlands’ €90 million SAF incentive fund, targeting Schiphol blending above the ReFuelEU mandate for 2027–2029, sharpens the question of where geological hydrogen could eventually undercut electrolysis costs in the PtL production chain.
A Farnborough Airshow study projects Canadian SAF reaching 40% of aviation fuel demand by 2040, and the technical performance metrics embedded in that forecast rhyme strikingly with the efficiency benchmarks emerging from natural hydrogen science.